According to the Aon Terrorism and Political Violence Map 2016, political violence risks are greatest in Sub Saharan Africa where six countries have had their risk rating increased. In addition Aon claims there is a growing risk of coups in four key African states. Logistics News ME reports
Despite the dominant threat posed by so-called Islamic State (IS), sudden and potentially violent political upheaval is just as severe a risk for international business according to the 2016 Aon Terrorism and Political Violence Map, produced in partnership with The Risk Advisory Group.
The map this year shows a rise in the number of countries with business-critical perils due to coups, insurrection or war, with Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the greatest increase in political violence risks.
The risk of coup détat and insurrection has been attached to twelve more countries this year, including Angola, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Zimbabwe and Angola. The majority of these additions stem from the risk of coups or other forms of power seizure, driven by uncertainties around succession in undemocratic or illiberal states. In Africa and other regions, a generation of aging autocratic leaders suggests that a tide of change is imminent.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the region where Aon found the largest concentration of countries with high to severe risk. It also saw the most increases in political violence risk ratings this year, with six countries in the region having their risk rating raised Angola, Burundi, Ghana, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Kenya is the country that bucks the trend; its risk rating was reduced as a result of an improved security environment.
The threat from terrorism, specifically from IS looms large. While its activities took on more lethal and disruptive proportions in the West, the most active regions for terrorism in the past year in terms of volume of attacks were by far The Middle East (1,114 attacks), followed by South Asia (799 attacks) and then North Africa (491 attacks) and Sub-Saharan Africa (331 attacks).
Henry Wilkinson, Head of Intelligence and Analysis at The Risk Advisory Group, which has collaborated with Aon to produce the Terrorism and Political Violence map since 2007, says: This years Aon Terrorism and Political Violence Map shows a rise in political violence and terrorism risks for the first time since 2013. The threat of terrorism is critical, but sudden political change at the top as well as war can arguably be more catastrophic for business. These risks are less manageable and less foreseeable and have the potential for cascading political risk ramifications across a region.
Wilkinson continues: Businesses need to be flexible and robust in how they anticipate and manage risks in the fluid world that the map depicts. Adaptiveness and resilience require effective risk management capabilities, which is why leading global businesses rely on Risk Advisorys intelligence and analysis services to help them grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands.
Scott Bolton, director of crisis management at Aon Risk Solutions, adds: The threats highlighted in our map should encourage global business leaders to adopt a more strategic approach to limit the impact of attacks on their people, operations and assets. Risk managers need help addressing how to leverage risk mitigation, whether through property damage, business interruption or another form of coverage to create a comprehensive terrorism programme.
Key findings from the 2016 Aon Terrorism Risk Map
Countries with increased risk ratings for 2016:
Angola, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Guyana, Moldova, Morocco, Nepal, Ghana, South Africa, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mongolia
Clusters of severe risk countries:
Africa – Across the Sahel region from Libya to DRC (9 countries)
Middle East – Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (3 countries)
South Asia – Afghanistan and Pakistan (2 countries)
Middle East/Africa – Gulf of Aden region (2 countries)
Insurrection, Revolution, Rebellion, Mutiny, Coup, War (IRRMCWC) Perils added for:
Angola
Eq. Guinea
Guinea
Guiana
Kazakhstan
Liberia
Maldives
Moldova
Saudi Arabia
Uzbekistan
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Most active regions for terrorist attacks in 2015:
Middle East (1114 attacks) – Down from 2014
South Asia (799 attacks) – Down from 2014
North Africa (491 attacks) – Up from 2014
Sub-Saharan Africa (331 attacks) – Down from 2014
Eurasia (298 attacks) – Up from 2014
Latin America (212 attacks) – Up from 2014
Asia Pacific (188 attacks) – Down from 2014
The West (35 attacks) – Down from 2014
About the 2016 Aon Terrorism Risk Map
The map captures assessments of the probability and impact of events occurring along the spectrum of insurable terrorism political violence risk typologies. The country risk scores and identified perils are based upon analysis of proprietary empirical data from the preceding year, open source intelligence analysis on the intentions and capabilities of relevant actors, as well as more systemic prevailing trends affecting security and stability around the world.
About The Risk Advisory Group
The Risk Advisory Group is a leading independent global risk consultancy that helps businesses grow whilst protecting their people, their assets and their brands. By providing facts, intelligence and analysis, The Risk Advisory Group helps its clients negotiate complex and uncertain environments to choose the right opportunities, in the right markets, with the right partners. For further information, please visit riskadvisory.net